727 FinanceKomawar Oktoba ta samo asali ne daga magudanar TGA, yayin da sakin ruwa na Nuwamba shine wurin juyawa; dabarar dogon lokaci ta ta'allaka ne a haɗuwar TradFi da Crypto da ake tafiyar da ita ta hanyar samun kuɗi bisa ka'ida da RWA (tokenization na kadara ta gaske).
An rubuta kuma ya shirya shi Mista Z (@168MrZ)
Tattalin arzikin Amurka yana shiga sabon zagayen ababen more rayuwa wanda AI CapEx ke tafiyar da shi, yayin da tallace-tallacen AI ya fara fahimtar ƙarfin lissafi da aka zuba a cikin shekarar da ta gabata; haƙiƙanin haɗarin ba ja da baya na Semiconductor ba ne, amma farashin mai da ke sake daidaita hauhawar farashi, Cloud Revenue da ya daina haɓakawa, da kuma Anthropic IPO da ya fara fitar da kuɗin kasuwa
A ranar 29 ga Oktoba, 2026, 168X ya gayyaci Qinbafrank (@qinbafrank) a karo na huɗu. Tattaunawar ta tashi daga FOMC, yaƙin Amurka da Iran, farashin mai da hauhawar farashi har zuwa Microsoft, Google, Anthropic, AI CapEx returns, Cloud, Agent, AI for Science, sannan zuwa Crypto's TGA liquidity, compliant financing da Tokenization.
Babban tsarin Frank a wannan karo ba hukunci mai sauƙi ba ne na masu goyon bayan AI da masu adawa da shi, a'a rarraba kasuwa zuwa layi biyu da ke gudana lokaci ɗaya: a ɓangaren macro, farashin mai mai tsada da ƙimar kuɗi mai tsawo na ƙarshen lokaci suna ci gaba da ɗaga ma'aunin kimantawa na Risk Assets; a ɓangaren masana'antu, AI Commercialization yana ci gaba da haɓakawa, kuma CapEx da aka zuba a cikin shekarar da ta gabata yana juyawa sannu a hankali zuwa online Capacity, umarnin kamfanoni da Revenue.
Don haka AI bai ƙare ba, amma ya shiga rabin na biyu. Nan gaba ba duk hannun jarin AI ne za su tashi tare ba, a'a dole a fara amsa: wanene a zahiri ke mai da CapEx zuwa Revenue? Wanene ya mallaki hanyar shiga ta kamfani? Wanene zai iya samun ƙarin riba yayin da Tokens ke ƙara yin arha?
I. Me ya sa tattalin arzikin Amurka har yanzu yake da ƙarfi haka: AI CapEx ya zama sabon ababen more rayuwa na Amurka
Mista Z: Bari mu fara da babban hoto. Yaya kake ganin tattalin arzikin Amurka, hauhawar farashi, da kuma dakatarwar ƙimar Fed a wannan karo?
Qinbafrank: Ina kallon tattalin arzikin Amurka a matakai biyu. Na farko shine macro GDP, kuma ina ganin babu babbar matsala a halin yanzu. Tun daga rabin na biyu na 2025, Amurka ta shiga zamanin AI mega-infrastructure.
Qinbafrank: CapEx na manyan kamfanonin fasaha a 2025 ya kai kusan dala biliyan 400–500, kuma a wannan shekara zai iya kusantar dala biliyan 900. Wato kusan dala biliyan 500 na sabon kashe kuɗi a cikin shekara ɗaya. Wannan girman kaɗai zai iya ba da goyon baya bayyananne ga GDP na Amurka, kusan kashi 1-2%.
Qinbafrank: Wannan a zahiri ya yi kama da China fiye da shekaru goma da suka wuce. A lokacin, babban ɓangaren motsa tattalin arzikin China ya fito ne daga gidaje da ababen more rayuwa; yanzu Amurka ta musanya da sabon Infrastructure, wanda ainihinsa shine AI Datacenter, Power, Chip, Networking. Muddin wannan zagayen CapEx Growth ya ci gaba, yana da wuya jimillar haɓakar GDP na Amurka ta kasance mara kyau musamman.Qinbafrank: Amma a mataki na biyu, idan aka duba daga masu amfani, aiki, da gogewar mutum ɗaya, labarin ya sha bamban. Amfani tsakanin rukunin masu matsakaici da manyan kuɗi har yanzu yana da ƙarfi, yayin da rukunin masu ƙanana da matsakaicin kuɗi a bayyane suke rauni, kuma maye gurbin da AI ke yi wa Ƙwadago yana ƙara fitowa fili. Microsoft yana ci gaba da sallamar mutane cikin shekaru biyu da suka gabata, kuma sauran manyan kamfanonin fasaha za su ci gaba da yin irin wannan a nan gaba.
Qinbafrank: Don haka tattalin arziki ne mai siffar K a bayyane. AI, Semiconductor, Wutar Lantarki, Datacenter—waɗannan masana'antu suna tafiya da kyau, amma mutane da masana'antun da ba su da alaƙa da AI na iya jin wani abu daban.
II. Ainihin matsalar farashin mai ba ƙarancin mai ba ne kuma: ƙarin dala 30–40 ne a kowace ganga a kuɗin jigilar kaya
Mr. Z: Ka kasance kana ganin farashin mai ɗaya ne daga cikin muhimman abubuwan da za su canza cikin watanni biyu masu zuwa. A ina ainihin ƙulli yake yanzu?
Qinbafrank: Babban dalilin da ya sa hauhawar farashin kaya ta sake tashi a wannan shekara shi ne makamashi, amma tunanin farkon rabin shekara da na yanzu ba ɗaya ba ne.
Qinbafrank: Farkon rabin shekara ya fi zama Supply Shock. Bayan an toshe mashigar Strait of Hormuz, mai ya kasa fita da gaske, don haka farashin mai ya tashi kai tsaye. Amma bayan shiga Satumba, wadata kanta ta dawo sosai.
Qinbafrank: Misali, Saudi Arabia tana da bututun mai daga Tekun Farisa zuwa Tekun Bahar Maliya, wanda bisa ga abubuwan da na gani zai iya jigilar kusan ganga miliyan 6–7 kowace rana; bututun UAE da ke ƙetare Hormuz shi ma zai iya samar da kusan ganga miliyan 3. A wani ɓangare kuma, masu samar da mai na Gabas ta Tsakiya sun fara amfani da VLCCs da yawa; babban jirgin ruwan dakon mai zai iya ɗaukar kusan ganga miliyan 2 na ɗanyen mai a lokaci ɗaya, sannan ya ratsa mashigar a cikin lokutan da haɗari ya fi ƙaranci.
Qinbafrank: Don haka bayan ƙarshen Satumba, adadin ɗanyen mai da ke fita daga Tekun Farisa ya dawo kusan daidai da matakin kafin yaƙi. Matsalar ita ce adadin ya dawo, amma kuɗin bai dawo ba.
Qinbafrank: A baya, jigilar ganga ɗaya ta ɗanyen mai daga Tekun Farisa zuwa Asiya na iya kashe dala 3 ko 4 kawai; yanzu yana iya zama dala 35–40. Idan ka ga Brent sama da dala 110 a yau, babban ɓangarensa ba farashin Crude kansa ba ne kwata-kwata, sai dai War Risk + Shipping Cost.
Qinbafrank: Domin jiragen ruwan dakon mai dole su ratsa ruwayen da ke da babban haɗari, masu jirgi suna ɗaukar haɗarin kai hari, kuma inshora, rakiya, lightering, da transshipment duk suna ƙara tsada. Don haka wannan ya riga ya juya daga Supply Shortage zuwa Logistics Inflation.
III. Bayan Crude, dole ne ka kuma duba Refinery: dawo da kayan da aka tace ya fi na wadatar ɗanyen mai jinkiri
Qinbafrank: Kuma yanzu akwai mataki na biyu, wato Refinery.Qinbafrank: Mutane da yawa suna kallon danyen mai kawai, amma a gaskiya abin da masu amfani da Amurka ke amfani da shi a ƙarshe shine Man Fetur, Dizel, kuma abin da masana'antu ke amfani da shi da gaske shine nau'ikan Kayayyakin Tacewa daban-daban. Wasu matatun mai a Gabas ta Tsakiya sun lalace, kuma Rasha da Ukraine sun ci gaba da kai wa juna hari a wuraren tacewa a watan Agusta da Satumba, don haka Ƙarfin Tacewa na duniya shima ya raunana.
Qinbafrank: Wannan yana nufin ko da an warware matsalar jigilar danyen mai sannu a hankali, kayayyakin da aka tace ba lallai ne su dawo nan take ba.
Qinbafrank: Don haka me yasa Amurka daga baya ta tattauna Batun Samar da Dizel da Rasha, ciki har da fatan wasu ƙasashe su ƙara fitar da kayayyakin da aka tace? Ainihin dalilin shine warware Danyen mai shi kaɗai bai isa ba.
Qinbafrank: Haɓakar Farashin Mai yanzu yana da matakai biyu: mataki na farko shine Kuɗin Jigilar Kaya, mataki na biyu shine Matsalar Tacewa. Idan ba a warware waɗannan matsalolin biyu ba, Haɓakar Farashin Makamashi zai yi matukar wahala ya ɓace da gaske.
IV. Dakatar da ƙaruwar kuɗi da Fed ta yi ba juyawa zuwa sassauci ba ne: ainihin shine "jira da gani" a cikin sansanin masu tsaurin ra'ayi
Mr. Z: Fed bai ƙara kuɗi ba a wannan lokacin. Shin kasuwa ya kamata ta fahimci wannan a matsayin juyawa zuwa sassauci?
Qinbafrank: Ba na tsammanin haka. Na fi fahimtar hakan a matsayin Haƙuri a cikin sansanin masu tsaurin ra'ayi.
Qinbafrank: Fed shima ya san cewa wani ɓangare na haɓakar farashin yanzu ya samo asali ne daga yaƙi da makamashi. Idan dangantakar Amurka da Iran ta daidaita kuma farashin mai ya faɗi da kansa, to Haɓakar Farashi a watan Nuwamba da Disamba na iya inganta daidai da haka.
Qinbafrank: Don haka abin da yake yi yanzu shine: Ba na gaggawa don ci gaba da ƙaruwa, zan duba ƙarin bayanai, in ga ko wannan Girgizar Mai na Wucin Gadi ne ko kuma sannu a hankali zai bazu zuwa haɓakar farashi mai faɗi da dorewa.
Qinbafrank: Idan Gabas ta Tsakiya ta daidaita kuma farashin mai ya faɗi sosai, to a watan Disamba yana iya ma ci gaba da tsayawa shi kaɗai da ƙarin lura da yadda farashin makamashi ke shiga cikin CPI da PCE.
Qinbafrank: Amma akasin haka, idan farashin mai ya kasance mai girma, Kuɗin Makamashi zai fara bazuwa daga mai zuwa sinadarai da kayayyakin masana'antu, sannan zuwa ƙarin kayayyaki, to ba Girgiza ta Lokaci Ɗaya ba ce kuma zai fara zama mai dorewa.
Qinbafrank: A wannan yanayin, mafi munin yanayi ba shine "ƙarin ƙaruwa ɗaya a watan Disamba" ba, amma mai yiwuwa ci gaba da ƙaruwa a shekara mai zuwa.
Qinbafrank: Kasuwa na iya narkar da ƙarin ƙaruwa 1 ko 2, saboda za ka iya lissafta shi. Amma idan ainihin tsammanin ya kasance 2 kuma a ƙarshe ya zama 3, 4, ko ma ya fi tsayi, to duk tsarin kimantawa zai sake farashi.
V. Ainihin taga ga Amurka da Iran shine bayan zaɓen tsakiyar wa'adi: Trump yanzu ya tsare kansa da kansaMr. Z: To yaushe ne ainihin juyawa tsakanin Amurka da Iran zai fi yiwuwa ya faru?
Qinbafrank: Ina ganin lokacin bayan zaɓen tsakiyar wa'adi zai zama taga mai mahimmanci.Qinbafrank: A yanzu Trump ya ɗan daɗe cikin wani yanayi. Tsarin Iran yana nufin za ta iya jure wahalar tattalin arziki fiye da yadda tsarin siyasar Amurka zai iya. A Amurka akwai zaɓe, ra'ayin jama'a, da matsin hauhawar farashin kaya; wahalar da talakawan Iran ke sha ba lallai ba ne ta juya kai tsaye zuwa canjin mulki.
Qinbafrank: Don haka a baya Amurka ta yi fatan cewa ta hanyar ƙarfafa takunkumin tattalin arziki da kulle-kulle, Iran ce za ta fara tsagewa, amma gaskiyar ita ce Iran ta nuna juriya fiye da yadda ake tsammani.
Qinbafrank: Wannan ita ce ainihin matsalar. Kafin zaɓen tsakiyar wa'adi, idan Trump ya ja da baya kai tsaye, hotonsa na siyasa zai sami rauni, domin hakan zai zama fara rikici ba tare da nasara ba sannan a fara ja da baya. Amma bayan zaɓen tsakiyar wa'adi, ko menene sakamakon, matsalolin siyasarsa za su ragu.
Qinbafrank: A lokacin akwai hanyoyi biyu: ko a zahiri a sake yin wani mataki na soja mafi tsanani; ko kuma a gane cewa ci gaba da yaƙi ba zai canza komai ba, sannan a fara tattaunawa.
Qinbafrank: Ni da kaina ina ganin na ƙarshe ba shi da wata dama, domin kana ganin ƙara yawan shiga tsakani na ɓangare na uku. Ƙasashe kamar Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, da Turkiyya duk suna shiga, kuma China ma tana da dalilin tura don rage tashin hankali, domin babu wanda zai iya jure wani zagaye na hauhawar farashin mai.
Qinbafrank: Kuma a zahiri, alamun ƙarin sadarwa kai tsaye tsakanin Amurka da Iran sun fara bayyana.
Qinbafrank: Don haka ina ganin babbar rashin jituwa tsakanin ɓangarorin biyu a yanzu watakila ba ma sharuɗɗan ƙarshe ba ne, amma wanene zai ɗauki matakin farko. Shin Iran ce za ta fara sassauta mashigar Hormuz, ko Amurka ce za ta fara sassauta takunkumi da kwance dukiyar da aka daskare? Babbar matsalar ɓangarorin biyu ita ce an lalata amana; kowanne yana tsoron idan ya ja da baya da farko, ɗayan ba zai cika alkawuransa ba.
VI. Warsh Yana Sake Fasalin Fed: A Gaba, Dot Plot da Forward Guidance Na Iya Rage Muhimmanci
Mr. Z: Me kake gani game da sabon tsarin sadarwa da yanke shawara na Fed na Kevin Warsh?
Qinbafrank: Ina ganin da gaske yana son canza abubuwa, ba wai kawai nuna kariya ba.
Qinbafrank: Fed tana da tarurrukan manufofi 8 a cikin shekarar da ta gabata; alkiblarsa a yanzu ita ce rage yawan tarurrukan da a zahiri ke tattauna manufar kuɗi, tare da gyare-gyare farawa daga shekara mai zuwa da yiwuwar ƙarin raguwa bayan haka.
Qinbafrank: Mafi muhimmanci, a fili ba ya son wuce gona da iri na Sadarwa kuma ba ya son ba da Forward Guidance da yawa. Muhimmancin abubuwa kamar dot plot ma na iya raguwa nan gaba.
Qinbafrank: Tunaninsa ya fi kama da: kowane lokaci, a yi hukunci da gaske bisa bayanan wannan lokacin, maimakon gaya maka watanni 3 kafin lokaci kusan abin da zan yi na gaba.
Qinbafrank: Bugu da ƙari, bayan ya hau mulki ya kafa ƙungiyoyin aiki da yawa, kuma ina ganin abin da ya fi cancantar kallo zuwa ƙarshen shekara su ne waɗannan rahotannin. Ina kallon tambayoyi 3 musamman.Qinbafrank: Na farko, shin Tsarin Haɗin Kan Farashi zai canza? Me ya sa dole ya zama 2%? A zamanin Powell an riga an canza shi, daga Maƙasudin Maƙasudi zuwa Matsakaicin Maƙasudin Haɗin Kan Farashi a kan wani lokaci, don haka ko za a sami sabon ma'anar nan gaba, ina ganin yana da matuƙar muhimmanci.
Qinbafrank: Na biyu, ta yaya Ƙarfin Aiki na AI zai shiga manufofin kuɗi? AI kanta ƙarfin da ke rage hauhawar farashi ne a dogon lokaci, domin albarkatu ɗaya za su iya samar da ƙarin kayayyaki da ayyuka; amma a ɗan gajeren lokaci, babban ginin kayan more rayuwa na AI yana haifar da matsin hauhawar farashi daga kashe kuɗin jari, kayan aiki, da wutar lantarki. Ta yaya daidai Fed zai daidaita Kashe Kuɗin Jari na Haɗin Kan Farashi na ɗan gajeren lokaci da Rage Farashin Ƙarfin Aiki na dogon lokaci?
Qinbafrank: Na uku, Takardar Ma'auni da Tsarin Ajiya. Tun daga 2008 Amurka ta haɓaka babban takardar ma'auni da tsarin ajiya mai yawa; shin Warsh nan gaba zai sake rage takardar ma'auni kuma ya saki ƙarin ruwa daga tsarin Fed zuwa bankuna da kasuwanni?
Qinbafrank: Idan waɗannan abubuwan sun canza da gaske, tasirin ya fi girma fiye da ko FOMC zai ƙara 25bp ko a'a a taro ɗaya.
VII. Daina yaudarar kanka da ARR: Abin da ke da Ƙima da Gaske Game da Anthropic shine Kuɗin Shiga da Ya Rigaya Ya Faru
Mr. Z: Mu koma AI. Kwanan nan kana cewa ya kamata mu daina kallon ARR kuma mu kalli ainihin kuɗin shiga maimakon. Me ya sa?
Qinbafrank: Domin ARR da kuɗin shiga da ya rigaya ya faru sun bambanta sosai a inganci.
Qinbafrank: Kuɗin shiga na Anthropic na cikakken shekarar 2025 ya kai kusan dala biliyan 4.5, kuma a rabin farko na 2026 kusan dala biliyan 16 da fiye da haka. A Q3, bisa ga alkaluma da kafofin watsa labarai suka bayyana a baya, kwata ɗaya kuma ya kai kusan dala biliyan 16.8.
Qinbafrank: Wannan yana nufin ainihin Kuɗin Shigarsa na kwanaki uku na farko na wannan shekara ya rigaya ya kai kusan dala biliyan 33. Idan Q4 ya ci gaba da girma idan aka kwatanta da Q3, to kiyasina na baya na dala biliyan 50-60 na ainihin Kuɗin Shiga na cikakken shekara yana buɗe don tattaunawa.
Qinbafrank: Wannan ya bambanta gaba ɗaya da "dala biliyan 100 ARR." ARR yana mayar da Run-rate na wani lokaci zuwa shekara; dala biliyan 50-60 tallace-tallace ne da suka faru da gaske a wannan shekara.
Qinbafrank: Don haka ina cewa bayan AI ya ci gaba zuwa wannan matakin, ya kamata mu sannu a hankali tura ma'aunin ARR baya kuma mu fara kallon Kuɗin Shiga na Kwata, Kuɗin Shiga na Shekara, da ainihin Kuɗin Kuɗi.
Qinbafrank: Kuma a wannan saurin, idan Kuɗin Shigar Anthropic ya wuce dala biliyan 100 shekara mai zuwa, ba na jin hakan ƙari ne. A baya ya ce zai kai dala biliyan 200 nan da 2028; yanzu aƙalla wannan ba lamba ba ce da ba za a iya tunaninta kwata-kwata ba.
VIII. Abin da Ya Gaske Ya Fi Tsammani a Microsoft Ba Azure 48% Ba: Shine Cewa Abokan Cinikin Kamfanoni Sun Fara Karɓar Ragamar Kamfanonin Model
Mr. Z: Microsoft a wannan kwata ya kusan kai ƙarshen tsarin hangen nesa naka. Me ka fi ɗauka da muhimmanci?Qinbafrank: Ina ganin sakamakon Microsoft ya kasance mai kyau sosai. Girman Azure a shekara ya kai 48%, Backlog kusan dala biliyan 670, wanda kusan kashi 30% ana sa ran za a gane shi cikin watanni 12 masu zuwa. Free Cash Flow har yanzu dala biliyan 18.6, wanda ya fito fili sosai a tsakanin manyan kamfanonin cloud.
Qinbafrank: Amma ina ganin abin da ya fi muhimmanci ba shine kashi 48% ba, amma wanene ke sayen Azure.
Qinbafrank: Microsoft a baya ya bayar da wani bayani: babban kaso na sabbin oda ba daga Kamfanonin Model na Frontier kamar OpenAI da Anthropic suke zuwa ba, amma daga Abokan Ciniki na Enterprise na yau da kullum.
Qinbafrank: A wannan karon mun sake ganin kasuwancin Foundry yana girma cikin sauri, tare da adadi mai yawa na abokan ciniki masu biya; abokan cinikin Copilot na enterprise akan biyan-kamar-yadda-kake-amfani suma suna ci gaba da girma cikin sauri.
Qinbafrank: Wannan alamar tana da muhimmanci musamman, domin a baya kowa ya kasance yana damuwa: shin duk wannan Bukatar Cloud zata iya zama OpenAI yana rance tarin kudi, sannan ya sayi GPUs na Microsoft, Microsoft kuma ya saka hannun jari a OpenAI, a karshe ya samar da Ciniki na Da'ira wanda kawai ke juyawa kansa?
Qinbafrank: Yanzu yawancin oda suna zuwa daga manyan kamfanoni na yau da kullum, wanda ke nuna cewa bukata da gaske ta fara yaduwa daga kamfanonin model zuwa Enterprise. Wannan shine Haƙiƙanin Kasuwancin AI.
IX. Cloud Zai Zama Tsarin Aiki na AI: Kamfanoni Ba Su Damu da Claude ko DeepSeek ba, Sai Sakamako da Kuɗi
Qinbafrank: Akwai wani batu daga wannan taron sakamakon Microsoft wanda nake ganin yana da muhimmanci musamman.
Qinbafrank: Microsoft yanzu yana da Models nasa, yayin da kuma yake haɗawa da OpenAI da kuma tura nau'ikan Open Source Models daban-daban. Masu sharhi sun tambaya: ta yaya daidai masu amfani suke zaɓa?Qinbafrank: Amsar Satya Nadella ainihin ita ce zaɓi mai motsi ta hanyar aiki.
Qinbafrank: Kamfanoni ba su damu ko tushen model a yau Claude ne, OpenAI, DeepSeek, ko model na Microsoft ba. Kamfanoni suna damuwa da abu biyu kawai: na farko, shin za a iya kammala aikin cikin kwanciyar hankali da inganci mai girma; na biyu, nawa ne kuɗin kammala aikin.
Qinbafrank: Ayyuka masu rikitarwa na iya kiran frontier model; ayyuka masu yawan maimaitawa, marasa tsada, waɗanda suka riga sun balaga ana iya canza su kai tsaye zuwa open source mai rahusa ko models na cikin gida.
Qinbafrank: Wannan ainihin abin da na faɗa a baya: Cloud a ƙarshe zai zama tsarin aiki na AI.
Qinbafrank: Yana gudanar da tura model, haɗin bayanai, sarrafa izini, tsaro, da tsarin aiki. Ana iya musanya tushen model, amma duk tsarin kamfanin yana gudana akan dandalin ku.
Qinbafrank: Musamman, yawancin kamfanoni na gargajiya ba kamfanonin fasaha ba ne, kuma ba su da ikon gina dukkan kayan more rayuwa da kansu. Don haka bayan models sun zama kayayyakin kasuwa, wannan ba yana nufin an tsallake Cloud ba; a maimakon haka, yana iya sa Cloud ya fi daraja.
X. Me Ya Sa Google Ya Fashe Kuma Bai Yi Muni Ba: Cloud 103%, Matsalar A Gaskiya Keɓewar Kuɗi Ne Na Bincike
Mr. Z: Sakamakon Google na wannan kwata ya sami mummunan martani daga kasuwa. Me kuke tunani?Qinbafrank: Kanun labarai ya yi muni sosai, amma bayan an fasalce shi ba shi da muni haka.
Qinbafrank: Google Cloud ya yi girma kusan kashi 103 cikin 100 a kwata na uku idan aka kwatanta da shekarar da ta gabata, tuni ya zarce dala biliyan 30 na kudaden shiga a kwatar, kuma ribar aiki ma tana da yawa sosai, inda har yanzu ribar ke inganta idan aka kwatanta da kwata na biyu.
Qinbafrank: Don haka Cloud da kansa yana da karfi sosai; matsalarsa ta fi yawa a asalin babban kasuwancinsa. AI Search yanzu ana amfani da shi sosai, amma hanyoyin samun kudi ba su cika kamawa ba.
Qinbafrank: A da, idan mai amfani ya nemi wani abu, zai ga tallace-tallace da yawa; yanzu mai amfani yana magana kai tsaye da AI. Idan AI ya ba da amsar kuma babu tallace-tallacen da suka yi daidai da karfin haka bayan haka, to kana cin ribar Search din ka na asali.
Qinbafrank: Haka kuma, kasuwa ta ga kudaden shiga kyauta (free cash flow) nasa sun yi muni sosai, amma akwai wasu abubuwan da suka faru sau daya a ciki, kamar karuwar ajiyar TPU, da kuma kudaden sasantawa da suka shafi Turai. Idan an mayar da wadannan, ainihin FCF bai kai girman da kanun labarai ya nuna ba.
Qinbafrank: Amma kasuwa tana da tsauri haka a yanzu. Ko Cloud dinka ya yi karfi haka, muddin babban kasuwancin ko FCF yana da aibi, zan fara rage kimantawa.
XI. "Jinkirin lokaci" na AI CapEx ya fara samun sakamako: kudin da aka kashe a 2025 yanzu ne kawai ke juya zuwa kudaden shiga
Mr. Z: To shin a karshe yana shiga cikin jinkirin lokacin da ka ke fada tun farko, inda zai fara samun sakamako?
Qinbafrank: Haka ne. Wannan yana da matukar muhimmanci. AI CapEx ba a kashe shi yau a juya shi zuwa kudaden shiga gobe ba. Sayen fili, gina cibiyoyin bayanai, gina wuraren wutar lantarki, yin odar GPU, girka sabar, sannan a fara aiki da gaske yana daukar lokaci mai tsawo.
Qinbafrank: Manyan kamfanonin fasaha sun fara kara CapEx sosai a kusan kwata na uku na 2025, don haka yawancin karuwar kudaden shiga da Microsoft da Google Cloud ke nuna yau sun dace da kudin da aka kashe shekara guda da ta gabata ko ma da farko.
Qinbafrank: Wato, karfin da aka fara hanzarta a rabin na biyu na bara yanzu ne kawai ke shiga lokacin samarwa, kuma a cikin kwatoci da dama da suka gabata duk masu samar da cloud suna fadin abu daya: bukata > wadata, karfin lissafi bai isa ba.
Qinbafrank: Idan bukata har yanzu tana karuwa, kuma duk wani sabon karfi da ka kawo yana shiga nan take, to kudaden shiga za su ci gaba da hanzarta a kwatoci masu zuwa.
Qinbafrank: Don haka ina ganin kasuwanci ba ya kai kololuwa yanzu; yana fara samun sakamako ne kawai a matakin girma.
XII. Ainihin lokacin juyawa: lokacin da Cloud Revenue Growth ya fara wuce CapEx Growth
Qinbafrank: Amma ba za ka iya kallon kudaden shiga kawai a nan ba; mataki na biyu ya shafi ROIC.
Qinbafrank: 2026 shekara ce ta fashewar CapEx. Bara ya kasance daruruwan biliyoyin daloli, kuma bana ya kusa ninkawa. Irin wannan CapEx Growth ba zai iya zama 100% kowace shekara ba.Qinbafrank: Menene ainihin kyakkyawan yanayin juyawa? Shi ne lokacin da haɓakar kashe kuɗi (CapEx Growth) ya fara raguwa a nan gaba, amma haɓakar kuɗin shiga na Cloud (Cloud Revenue Growth) ya ci gaba da ƙaruwa.
Qinbafrank: Misali, haɓakar Cloud na Google a baya mai yiwuwa ya kasance kashi 40% ko 50 kawai, sannan daga baya ya wuce 80%, kuma yanzu ya wuce 100%. Idan haɓakar kuɗin shigarsa ta fara wuce haɓakar kashe kuɗi, to lissafin yana ƙara kyau.
Qinbafrank: Haka kuma, kasuwa ta kasance tana damuwa sosai game da raguwar darajar GPU. Kowa ya ce GPU na lalacewa cikin shekaru biyu ko uku, don haka tsawaita rayuwar raguwar darajar da hyperscalers ke yi wata dabara ce ta lissafin kuɗi.
Qinbafrank: Amma gaskiyar ita ce, GPU na tsofaffin ƙarni har yanzu suna da ƙarfin tattalin arziki sosai a yau, kuma wasu kwangiloli na dogon lokaci har ma suna ƙara tsawaita amfani da tsofaffin katunan.
Qinbafrank: Idan rayuwar sabar, cibiyoyin bayanai, da kayan aikin wutar lantarki ta fi tsawon fiye da yadda kasuwa ta yi tsammani, kuma ana iya maye gurbin kwakwalwan kwamfuta yayin da ake ci gaba da amfani da kayan aikin, to ainihin lokacin dawo da kuɗin dukan CapEx zai ƙara kyau.
Qinbafrank: Don haka a cikin ƙananan kwata-kwata masu zuwa, abin da na fi son gani shi ne yadda waɗannan abubuwa za su fara haɗuwa: Haɓakar Kuɗin Shiga, Haɓakar CapEx, Rayuwar Raguwar Daraja, da FCF.
XIII. Rubutun lambar ba shi ne kawai yanayin AI ba: Kasuwanci, Agent, da AI don Kimiyya suna karɓar ragamar lokaci guda
Qinbafrank: Wata damuwar da kasuwa ta yi a baya ita ce: ban da Rubutun Lamba, me kuma AI ke da shi?
Qinbafrank: Me ya sa Rubutun Lamba ya fashe da farko? Domin yana da tsari sosai, yana da manyan wuraren ajiya kamar GitHub, kuma yana da madaidaicin hanyar mayar da martani, don haka samfuran suna iya inganta da sauri.
Qinbafrank: Amma mataki na biyu ba shine "nemo wani yanayi guda ɗaya mai girma kamar Rubutun Lamba ba"; a maimakon haka, yanayi da yawa suna fashewa tare.
Qinbafrank: Rukuni na farko shine ayyukan kwance da tsaye a cikin kamfanoni. Kuɗi, Shari'a, Haraji, Talla, HR, da ayyukan kamfani daban-daban mai yiwuwa ba su kai girman Rubutun Lamba ɗaya ɗaya ba, amma tare suna da girma sosai.
Qinbafrank: Bugu da ƙari, yayin da Rubutun Lamba kansa ke ƙara ƙarfi, yana kuma shirya hanya don waɗannan yanayi, domin yawancin ayyukan kamfani a ƙarshe suna buƙatar lambar don haɗawa.
Qinbafrank: Na biyu shine Agent. Tun daga Satumba, manyan kamfanoni duk sun kasance suna tura Agents nasu. Personal Agent da Enterprise Agent duk za su ci gaba da ƙara yawan amfani da token.Qinbafrank: Na uku shine AI don Kimiyya, AIDD (Gano Magunguna ta hanyar AI), Gano Magunguna—waɗannan yanayi masu daraja sosai. OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, da ByteDance duk suna saka jari a Bio da Kimiyyar Rayuwa.
Qinbafrank: Don haka ba wai babu wani yanayi na biyu bayan Rubutun Lamba ba; a maimakon haka, yanayi na biyu ya riga ya rabu zuwa yanayi daban-daban da yawa da ke bayyana lokaci guda.
XIV. Yadda za a Yi Ciniki Game da Anthropic 11/9: Kafin Roadshow Shine Tagar, Bayan Roadshow Fitarwa Zai Fara
Mr. Z: Abin da kowa ya fi damuwa da shi a yanzu ya kamata har yanzu ya kasance IPO na Anthropic. Me ya sa kuke ganin kusan Nuwamba 9 a matsayin layin raba?Qinbafrank: Nuwamba 9 shine lokacin da na fitar bisa tsarin SEC, ba wani abu da kamfanin ya sanar a hukumance ba.
Qinbafrank: Bayan Anthropic ta wallafa S-1 dinta, a karkashin ka'idoji dole ne ta wuce takamaiman adadin kwanakin kalanda a farkon misali kafin ta iya fara Roadshow. Idan aka kirga gaba, hakan zai kai kusan Nuwamba 9.
Qinbafrank: Kafin hakan, ina ganin kasuwa na iya samun wani taga mai dadi.
Qinbafrank: Akwai dalilai da dama. Na farko, kasuwa ta riga ta fadi tsawon makonni, don haka an saki yawancin tunani; na biyu, Cloud Revenue na Microsoft da Google a kalla sun tabbatar da cewa AI Commercialization bai karye ba; na uku, idan kudaden shiga na Amazon ma ba su nuna wata matsala bayyananna ba, to tushen abubuwa zai ba kasuwa wani goyon baya; na hudu, akwai kuma yanayi na yanayi a kusa da zabukan tsakiyar wa'adi da kansu.
Qinbafrank: Don haka kafin Roadshow, kasuwa na iya fara samun farfadowa. Abin da ya kamata ka lura da shi sosai shi ne bayan cibiyoyi sun fara shirya biyan kuɗi da gaske.
XV. Me ya sa Kyakkyawan IPO Zai Iya Murkushe Kasuwa: Dala Biliyan 400 na Kuɗin Biyan Kuɗi Ba Za Su Iya Fitowa Daga Wuri ba
Qinbafrank: Mutane da yawa ba su fahimci abin da "draining" ke nufi ba. Draining ba yana nufin Anthropic ba ta da kyau ba; akasin haka—watakila saboda tana da kyau sosai ne duk cibiyoyi suke son ta.
Qinbafrank: Zan yi amfani da yanayin SpaceX a lokacin a matsayin misali. Ga babban IPO, kuɗin biyan kuɗi na ƙarshe yawanci ninki da yawa ne na girman fitar da aka yi.
Qinbafrank: Idan Anthropic a ƙarshe ita ma babbar Deal ce a sikelin ɗaruruwan biliyoyin daloli, kasuwa na iya buƙatar shirya kuɗin biyan kuɗi a ɗaruruwan biliyoyin.
Qinbafrank: Matsalar ita ce asusun cibiyoyi ba za su bar ɗaruruwan biliyoyin a Cash a kwance suna jiran ta yi rajista ba. To daga ina kuɗin zai fito? Sayar da matsayi.
Qinbafrank: Sayar da wani ɓangare na Semi, sayar da Momentum, sayar da Software, sayar da wani AI Position, a saki Cash, a shirya yin biyan kuɗi. Don haka ainihin Liquidity Drain yakan bayyana bayan Roadshow ya fara, domin cibiyoyi sun fara yin Portfolio Adjustment a hukumance.
Qinbafrank: A ranar IPO, lokacin da wani ɓangare na kuɗin da ba su sami rabo ba ko aka kulle ya saki, yanayin zai sake canzawa; amma bayan rajista, za a sami wani Layer na biyu na draining, wato masu saka hannun jari na kanana da sauran kuɗi za su yi tunani: tunda yanzu akwai mafi tsarkin Frontier AI stock, me ya sa zan ci gaba da saya a kaikaice ta Supply Chain?
Qinbafrank: Don haka a dogon lokaci, rajistar Anthropic na iya zama mai matuƙar bullish ga AI, amma a ɗan gajeren lokaci tana iya shan duk ɓangaren AI gaba ɗaya.
XVI. Babban Layin AI Ya Rigaya Ya Yi Hijira: Memory → Optical / Software → Agent / AI for Science
Qinbafrank: Akwai wani batu da na ke so in jaddada koyaushe, wato kada a samar da tunanin da ya tsaya cak cewa "AI = Semiconductor = Memory"; babban layin AI yana yin hijira a kowane mataki.Qinbafrank: A Q1 da Q2 na wannan shekara, Memory ita ce ta fi ƙarfi; bayan Agusta da Satumba, Optical ya fara ƙarfafa, kuma a lokaci guda wasu jerin sunayen software da SaaS waɗanda a baya aka buge su sosai su ma sun fara fitowa.
Qinbafrank: Me ya sa? Domin bayan Model ya zama kaya mai sauƙin sayarwa da Token Price ya sauko, waɗanda suka amfana ba Hardware na sama kawai ba ne.
Qinbafrank: Yayin da Token ya fi sauƙi, Deployment kuma ya fi sauƙi, to Cloud, Software, Enterprise Integration, da Agent za su ƙara amfana da yawa. Mataki na gaba na iya zama AI for Science da Bio.
Qinbafrank: Don haka abin da trend investing ya kamata ya yi da gaske ba wai tsayin daka wajen kare Winner na asali ba ne, a'a ci gaba da gano: a ina ne rukunin riba na gaba ke ƙaura zuwa.
Qinbafrank: Memory bai ƙare ba, kuma Semi bai mutu ba; sai dai matakin kamar rabin farkon shekara lokacin da komai ya tashi tsaye zai iya ƙarewa a ɗan gajeren lokaci.
XVII. Zamanin High-Yield Ba Ya Nufin Ribar Gama Gari: Daga Yanzu Kasuwa Za Ta Ba da Lada ga Real Cash Flow Kawai
Qinbafrank: Akwai kuma wani babban yanayi a yanzu, wato mun riga mun shiga zamanin da ake samun riba mai girma.
Qinbafrank: Farashin man fetur yana tura Inflation sama, gibin kasafin kuɗi yana sa a fitar da Treasury mai yawa, kuma AI Infrastructure da kanta na buƙatar fitar da Corporate Debt mai yawa. Duk waɗannan abubuwan suna gasa neman kuɗi a kasuwar bond tare.
Qinbafrank: Lokacin da Bond Yield ya yi girma, hakanan hannun jari dole ne ya bayar da Risk Premium mafi girma, wanda shi ne dalilin da ya sa kasuwa ke ƙara zama mai zaɓe.
Qinbafrank: Idan ribar Microsoft ɗinka ba ta da wata buɗaɓɓiyar da ba a so, to kasuwa za ta ba ka amsa mai kyau; Google Cloud a fili yana da kyau sosai, amma idan Search da FCF ɗinka sun nuna matsala, kasuwa har yanzu tana sayarwa da farko.
Qinbafrank: Don haka wajen zaɓen hannun jari a gaba, dole ne ka bambanta sarai: waɗanne kamfanoni Narrative ne kawai, kuma waɗanne kamfanoni ne kasuwancinsu ya bayar da gaskiya, inda Revenue na gaske ne, Cash Flow na gaske ne, kuma ana iya lissafta sararin haɓaka na shekaru 2 ko 3 masu zuwa.
Qinbafrank: Idan babban kamfani aka kashe masa valuation saboda matsalolin ɗan gajeren lokaci, a gaskiya ina ganin wannan abu ne mai kyau, domin yana ba ka farashin da za ka sake shiga. High rates ba ya nufin duk hannun jari ba za su iya tashi ba; a'a, kasuwa za ta ƙara "zaɓen mafi kyau a cikin mafi kyau."
XVIII. Abin da Ya Kamata a Sa Idanu da Gaske a 2027 Q1 Ba Semi Ba Ne, A'a Shin AI Commercialization Ya Ci Gaba da Raguwa
Mr. Z: Idan ka duba 2027 Q1, wace hukunci ka fi dogaro da shi?
Qinbafrank: Hukuncin da zan iya yi shi ne, aƙalla har zuwa Q1 na shekara mai zuwa, ina ganin AI Commercialization har yanzu yana ƙara sauri kuma bai kai Saturation ba.
Qinbafrank: Domin ƙara yawan kamfanoni sun fara aiwatar da AI, Token Consumption na kowa a ƙarshe zai bayyana a Compute, kuma Compute galibi yana hannun Cloud Provider. Don haka aƙalla a matakin Cloud, ina ganin haɓaka har yanzu akwai.Qinbafrank: Yaushe zan fara damuwa da gaske game da AI Thesis? Ba lokacin da Semi ya faɗi 20%, ba kuma lokacin da wani hannun jari ya faɗi 30%. Sai lokacin da ka ga Growth Rate na Cloud Business a Microsoft, Google, da AWS a fili yana raguwa na kwata biyu a jere.
Qinbafrank: Wannan shine lokacin da dole ka tambaya: Shin duk enterprises da ya kamata su yi amfani da AI sun riga sun yi amfani da shi? Shin users sun riga sun kashe kusan adadin da suke shirye su kashe? Shin Workflow da zai iya samar da economic value sun riga sun fara Saturate?
Qinbafrank: Wannan shine asalin dukan AI Story. Muddin mutane suna ci gaba da amfani da shi, enterprises suna ci gaba da biya, kuma Token Consumption yana ci gaba da girma, babban alkibla bai karye ba.**19. Me ya sa Crypto ya Faɗi a Oktoba: Ba Wai Narratives Sun Mutu Ba, TGA ne ke Zubar da Liquidity**
Mr. Z: Bari mu yi magana kan Crypto a ƙarshe. Ya yi tsalle a Satumba, sannan ya koma baya a Oktoba—menene ra'ayinka?
Qinbafrank: A ɓangaren Crypto, ina ganin a zahiri ya bayyana sarai—Liquidity ne. Lokacin da muka yi magana a ƙarshen Agusta, tsarin da na yi amfani da shi a lokacin shi ne cewa ƙarshen Agusta zuwa tsakiyar-zuwa-ƙarshen Satumba zai kasance da ɗan kyau, kuma ƙarshen Satumba zuwa Oktoba za a ga koma baya, domin liquidity zai fara tsananta.
Qinbafrank: Haka abin ya kasance. TGA (Treasury General Account) ya tashi daga kusan dala biliyan 800–900 a Agusta, ya hau har ya wuce dala tiriliyan ɗaya yanzu—a zahiri, Treasury yana cire Cash daga kasuwa.
Qinbafrank: Don haka raunin Crypto a Oktoba ba wai duk Narratives sun mutu ba kwatsam—matsalar ita ce yanayin Money Supply bai dace ba.
Qinbafrank: Abin da za a lura da shi na gaba abu ne mai sauƙi: ko TGA zai fara saki a Nuwamba. Idan Treasury ya fara mayar da Cash cikin tsarin kuma market Liquidity ya inganta, to Crypto zai iya sake farawa a zahiri.
Qinbafrank: Tsarin da na bayar a baya shi ne cewa liquidity zai kai ƙasa a hankali a kusan ƙarshen Oktoba, kuma idan an sake saki a Nuwamba, kasuwar crypto na da damar juyawa tare da shi.
**20. Babban Jigo Mafi Girma na Mataki na Gaba na Crypto: Compliant ICOs + Tokenization, TradFi da Crypto Suna Haɗuwa**
Qinbafrank: A ɓangaren tsari, ba na jin babu canji—kawai abubuwa da yawa suna buƙatar lokaci kafin su tabbata.
Qinbafrank: Layi na farko shine Crypto Financing. A da, kamfanonin Amurka da ke tara jari ko dai sun yi IPO, Regulation D private placement, ko kuma sun yi amfani da keɓancewa kamar Regulation A da Regulation CF. Amma Crypto Projects ba su iya tara jari daga jama'ar Amurka ta hanyar da ta dace na dogon lokaci, don haka duk wanda ke yin Token Sales ya toshe Amurkawa.
Qinbafrank: Yanzu masu tsari suna nazarin sabon keɓancewar kuɗaɗen dijital—a zahiri suna ba Crypto Projects hanyar tara jari bisa doka daga jama'a a nan gaba.
Qinbafrank: Wannan ba zai tabbata nan take ba, domin har yanzu akwai public comment da tsarin tsari, amma idan an aiwatar da shi da gaske, ina ganin ana iya fahimtar shi a matsayin sabon nau'in Regulated ICO.Qinbafrank: Layi na biyu shine Tokenization. Ko da dokar CLARITY ta tsaya a matakin majalisa, wannan ba yana nufin masu kula ba za su iya yin komai ba. SEC da CFTC, a cikin ikonsu, har yanzu za su iya tura ka'idoji kan Custody, Tokenized Securities, DeFi, AMM, Derivatives, da sauransu.
Qinbafrank: Ina ganin yanayin Tokenization ya riga ya zama wanda ba za a iya juyawa ba. Yawancin Treasury, Stock, da Security za su shiga Kasuwar Kudi ta On-chain.
Qinbafrank: Don haka abin da ke amfani da gaske na dogon lokaci ba shine kawai "stock tokens" kansu ba, amma Infrastructure, Settlement, Custody, Liquidity, da DeFi Rail na ƙasa. Babbar alkiblar Crypto da TradFi ba ita ce maye gurbin juna ba, amma a hankali su zama kasuwar kudi ɗaya.
Mr. Z: Don kammala wannan kashi, bari in taƙaita tsarin Qinbafrank cikin hukunce-hukunce 6.
Na farko, tattalin arzikin Amurka ba ya cikin cikakken koma baya a yanzu; AI CapEx ya zama sabon jarin kayan more rayuwa na Amurka, amma rarrabuwar K-shaped za ta ci gaba da faɗaɗawa yayin da AI ke maye gurbin aiki.
Na biyu, mafi mahimmancin ma'aunin macro a cikin watanni 1–2 masu zuwa har yanzu shine Oil, kuma yanzu ya samo asali daga batun samar da danyen mai kawai zuwa matsala biyu ta Shipping Cost + Refinery Capacity. Ko Amurka da Iran za su iya shiga tattaunawa ta gaske bayan zaɓen tsakiyar wa'adi kai tsaye yana ƙayyade hauhawar farashin kaya da matakin Fed na gaba.
Na uku, AI Commercialization bai kai kololuwa ba—maimakon haka, jinkirin lokaci daga CapEx na shekarar da ta gabata ya fara biya. Kuɗin shiga a Microsoft, Google, da Anthropic duk sun tabbatar da cewa Adoption na kamfanoni har yanzu yana zurfafa. Muhimmin mataki na gaba shine lokacin da Cloud Revenue Growth ya zarce CapEx Growth da gaske.
Na huɗu, AI ya shiga rabin na biyu na masana'antar. Memory da Semi ba za su ɓace ba, amma babban jigon zai ci gaba da ƙaura zuwa Optical, Cloud, Software, Agent, Enterprise Deployment, da AI for Science. A cikin yanayin kuɗi mai tsada, kasuwa za ta ba da lada ga real Earnings kawai.
Na biyar, kafin Anthropic Roadshow, ana iya samun wata damar farfaɗowar motsin rai, amma da zarar Roadshow ya fara, manyan biyan kuɗi na cibiyoyi za su buƙaci sayar da wasu matsayi don fitar da Cash—ana buƙatar lura da kusa da Liquidity Drain na ɗan gajeren lokaci.
Na shida, gyaran Crypto na Oktoba a zahiri har yanzu raguwar liquidity ne; ko TGA zai saki a Nuwamba shine mafi kai tsaye Trigger, yayin da babban jigon tsari na dogon lokaci shine compliant financing da Tokenization da ke tura TradFi Assets su shiga On-chain Finance gaba ɗaya.
Alamar da za ta juya AI Thesis zuwa bearish da gaske ba shine Semi ya faɗi wani 20% ba, amma Cloud Commercialization ya fara raguwa a fili na jerin kwanaki da yawa. Godiya ga Qinbafrank don zuwa 168X a karo na huɗu!