727 FinanceAuthor: Lin Chunmu, Gelonghui
The financing myth of the AI track, once met with universal response, is now facing a test.
According to multiple media reports, OpenAI has lowered its new funding round target to $20 billion.
That is a full $10 billion cut from the previous $30 billion target.
The valuation has also been lowered in tandem from $1.4 trillion to $1.25 trillion, a shrinkage of $150 billion.
More noteworthy is that, reportedly, by the Friday commitment deadline, OpenAI had actually secured only about $11 billion in investment commitments, less than half of the original $30 billion target.
Even measured against the lowered $20 billion target, the market still expects that the first closing will be difficult to complete in full.
From $30 billion to $20 billion
The shrinkage of this funding round did not happen all at once.
In mid-October, OpenAI was still advancing a plan to raise about $30 billion at a valuation of more than $1.4 trillion.
Around October 22, the valuation ask was first lowered to $1.25 trillion; then this week, even the fundraising target itself was cut to $20 billion.
The timeline is urgent because rival Anthropic's IPO is already on the verge of launch.
Anthropic publicly released its listing documents this week, targeting a valuation of at least $1.5 trillion and potentially becoming one of the largest IPOs in history.
OpenAI originally wanted to lock in investor commitments before Anthropic's listing to avoid being put on the back foot when the two companies compete for the same pool of institutional funds.
But judging from actual subscription demand, this "front-running" strategy has had limited effect.
The timing of the cold reception to OpenAI's fundraising also coincided with a concentrated reckoning in public markets over AI spending.
This week, AI trades underwent severe repricing, and U.S. AI-related stocks suffered heavy losses.
The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell more than 8% cumulatively this week; Intel plunged 25% in a single day due to revenue guidance far below expectations, Micron fell 5.5%, and Nvidia fell 4%; Alphabet had its worst trading day on record on Thursday.
The core question behind the market's doubts is simple: large technology companies are spending hundreds of billions of dollars a year building data centers and snapping up GPUs—where is the return?
The capital expenditure data or forecasts previously announced by Microsoft, Alphabet, and Amazon were all below analyst expectations.
When even the giants who vote with real money in the market begin to scale back spending expectations, caution toward OpenAI in the private market is almost an inevitable transmission.
In addition, deeper pressure comes from OpenAI's own spending commitments.
According to internal investor documents, OpenAI expects a cumulative free cash flow shortfall of about $278 billion from 2026 to 2030.
Meanwhile, the nominal total of computing power and data center agreements signed over the past 15 months exceeds $1.4 trillion, about 35 times its current annualized revenue.
Where will the money come from?
It is reported that the lead party in this funding round is a UAE consortium.
UAE sovereign technology funds such as MGX are core contributors, and well-known venture capital firms including Founders Fund, Andreessen Horowitz, and SoftBank, as well as high-net-worth individual investors, are also participating.
As part of the deal, OpenAI plans to lease newly added computing power resources in the UAE region to support model training and business operations.
To fill the gap, OpenAI is also looking to more diversified funding sources.
People familiar with the matter revealed that the company plans to expand the fundraising scope in the coming weeks to include family offices and high-net-worth individual investors.
The success or failure of this funding round will directly affect the IPO timetable.
But the contraction of OpenAI's fundraising does not mean the long-term AI logic has completely collapsed.
What has changed is the market's pricing yardstick: in the past, capital was willing to pay for long-term stories; now it is beginning to demand visible, implementable profit clues.
Over the past two years, valuations in the AI track have risen all the way, with capital pouring frantically into computing power and large-model sectors.
Now the market has entered a verification period, and the margin for error on high valuations is narrowing.
The final result of OpenAI's current funding round will become a bellwether for observing the AI capital cycle.
If fundraising continues to fall short of expectations, the pace of computing power procurement and capacity expansion across the entire AI industry chain may slow.
For the entire industry, the frenzy phase is over.
Next, profitability and cash flow are the answers capital values most.