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Analysis: China may have stockpiled 343 immersion deep ultraviolet lithography machines

ChainCatcher news, according to the South China Morning Post, former US officials said that Chinese semiconductor factories have accumulated hundreds of immersion lithography machines worth billions of dollars in recent years and urged Washington and its allies to stop further exports. The Center for Technology & Statecraft, established in August 2026, released a report in late September estimating that Chinese fabs had acquired approximately 343 immersion deep UV lithography systems by early 2026. The report was co-authored by Nicholas Brown, a former U.S. export control official, and Saif Khan, a former White House and Commerce Department technology policy adviser.

Reports estimate that approximately 270 of these units are ASML Twinscan NXT:1980i. The author said that although these equipment lag behind extreme ultraviolet lithography machines, they can be transformed into advanced memories needed to manufacture 7-nanometer logic chips and artificial intelligence processors (including Huawei's Ascend series). Chinese wafer fabs spent more than $13 billion to purchase approximately 90 NXT:1980i units in 2024 and an additional 89 units in 2025. ASML disclosed that China will account for 41% of its net system sales by shipping destination in 2024 and 33% in 2025, falling to 19% in the first quarter of 2026 and 14% in the second quarter.

The Netherlands will require export licenses for NXT:2000i and more advanced immersion deep UV equipment starting in September 2023, and these models have since been effectively banned from being shipped to China; a year later, the licensing requirements were extended to NXT:1980i, but this model can still be approved for shipment on a case-by-case basis.

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