HTX DeepThink: US-Japan Tightening May Form Resonance, Stocks and Crypto Face Synchronized Deleveraging Risk

PANews October 9 news: Chloe, author of the HTX DeepThink column and researcher at HTX Research, pointed out in her analysis that the core contradiction for global risk assets has shifted from whether the Federal Reserve will raise rates in October to the duration of high U.S. interest rates, the normalization of Japan's monetary policy, and the potential withdrawal of global leveraged funds. St. Louis Fed President Musalem said that further tightening may still be needed over the next 6 to 9 months. Although the market expects a pause in October and another rate hike in December, U.S. Treasury yields remain persistently high, and the liquidity environment has not improved as a result, with U.S. equity valuations and crypto assets both under pressure.

BTC fell below $83,000, reflecting a clear decline in the willingness to allocate funds under a high-interest-rate environment. If U.S. inflation data in mid-October continues to exceed expectations, the probability of a December rate hike may rise further, pushing up real U.S. Treasury yields. In the short term, attention should be paid to the support strength near $80,000. If spot ETFs continue to see outflows and BTC cannot regain its footing above $83,000, BTC may further test the $76,000-$78,000 range; ETH and altcoins have higher leverage levels and thinner liquidity, making deleveraging risks more pronounced.

The Bank of Japan may become an underestimated risk in late October. As Japan gradually exits ultra-loose policy, yen funding costs rise, and carry trades that previously borrowed low-interest yen to allocate to risk assets such as U.S. equities face pressure to unwind. Once the yen appreciates rapidly, investors may be forced to sell dollar assets to repay yen liabilities, creating a negative feedback loop of "yen appreciation, asset declines, and leveraged liquidation." The market volatility in August 2024 has already demonstrated the amplifying effect of this mechanism. If USD/JPY quickly falls below 155, it may signal rising carry-trade unwind risk, but this still needs to be confirmed in conjunction with cross-asset volatility and capital flows.

For U.S. equities, the mid-October earnings season will become an important watershed. The AI industry chain still has support from capital expenditure and earnings, but high-valuation tech stocks are extremely sensitive to real interest rates, and crypto assets, which lack earnings support and rely more on incremental liquidity, may come under greater pressure. Overall, the market is more inclined toward weak consolidation, with a technical rebound followed by another test of lows. If U.S. inflation falls, U.S. Treasury yields decline, and the yen remains stable, BTC and the Nasdaq may still have opportunities for a phased recovery; if high U.S. interest rates and rapid yen appreciation resonate, a new round of synchronized deleveraging in stocks and crypto may occur in late October.