Report: Bitcoin Under Pressure from ETF Outflows and Rate Hike Expectations, CPI Data May Determine Short-Term Direction

PANews October 13 news: CoinShares' latest biweekly report shows that BTC fell back to about $80,300 after approaching $87,000 on October 5, then rebounded to about $83,500, remaining basically flat over the past two weeks and still about 33% below last October's peak. Last week, U.S. spot BTC ETFs saw net outflows of $679 million, including a single-day outflow of $485 million on Wednesday, the largest single-day outflow since June; ETH ETFs recorded cumulative outflows of nearly $700 million over 9 consecutive trading days. BTC's correlation with the Nasdaq rebounded to its long-term average of about 40%, while its correlation with inflation-linked bonds continued to strengthen.

On the macro side, September nonfarm payrolls rose by only 29,000, with the market pricing about a 20% chance of a rate hike in October and close to 70% for December; the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield reached 5.37%, the highest since 2002. CoinShares believes this week's CPI is the key variable: if core CPI rises 0.3% month over month, it may reinforce expectations of an October rate hike, and BTC will face the risk of retesting $80,000; if it is 0.2% or lower, it would support waiting until December.