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An $80,000 large buy order fuels the rebound, but BTC's advance still lacks one confirmation
Bitcoin has temporarily held $80,000, but the market has not yet exited the warning zone. On October 15, BTC, caught between U.S. inflation data and a selloff in Asian tech stocks, once fell to about $79,800, before buying quickly refilled and pushed it to near $82,500 at the high.
The drivers of this rebound were dip-buying replenishment and cooling expectations for an October rate hike. Glassnode observed that after large buy orders placed near $80,000 were filled over the past week, new buy orders continued to come in, pushing prices gradually higher. However, the firm also warned that support below $80,000 is weakening.
Traders' consensus is concentrated on the $80,000-$81,500 support band and the $84,000 rebound threshold. Glassnode views $80,000-$81,500 as the intersection of on-chain cost basis and spot buying, with the average cost for U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF holders at about $81,500; that level was reclaimed both times after being lost previously. As the $80,000 orders are consumed, support below is facing a second test, with a large long liquidation cluster piled up near $75,000; CryptoQuant calls the $80,400 trendline the "line between life and death," saying that if a 4-hour close confirms a break below it, focus shifts to $77,000, $73,500, $70,000 and $64,000 below.
The order book and technical indicators also point to similar areas. Daan Crypto Trades believes BTC found support at the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level; if it holds $81,500, liquidity at $84,000 will be the bullish target. Wealthmanager sees $84,000 as the confirmation level for a stronger trend, with a failed rebound potentially falling back to $76,000. Wulf views $80,700 as range support and $84,000 as major resistance, with a breakout potentially targeting $87,000, while a break below $80,700 would warrant caution about a slide to $75,000.
Analysts Rekt Capital and Aksel Kibar warned that BTC pulled back after forming a double top near $87,000; if the weekly close falls below the key $82,500 level, it could trigger the "violent retest" common in early bull markets, seeking support at the 50-week EMA ($78,459) and 21-week EMA ($76,144). In addition, the average cost for 6-12 month holders is about $88,000, and for 1-2 year holders about $100,000, creating overhead trapped-supply pressure.
Today's highlights:
Arbitrum (ARB) unlocks about 92.65 million tokens, worth about $18.75 million
Cronos (CRO) unlocks about 1.17 billion tokens, worth about $69.5 million
deBridge (DBR) unlocks about 618 million tokens, worth about $12 million
Upbit 24-hour trading volume ranking: XRP, BTC, ETH, NEAR, PUFFER
Bitcoin spot ETF: +$5.0551 million
Ethereum spot ETF: -$60.2222 million
Top gainers among the top 100 coins by market cap today: TIA +27.2%, INJ +26.8%, ZRO +17%, ETHFI +16.7%, ARB +14.3%.
Market cautiously bets on direction; Tesla shares surge premarket after new vehicle launch
Futures on the three major U.S. stock indexes are cautiously bullish, with the market repeatedly weighing Warsh's remarks against AI credit cracks and reluctant to chase highs aggressively before the open. S&P 500 futures rose about 0.21%, Nasdaq futures about 0.08%, and Dow futures about 0.34%.
Notably, the Chicago Board Options Exchange announced that starting next Monday it will officially extend U.S. equity options trading hours, including the Magnificent Seven tech giants, popular chip stocks, as well as Alibaba and TSMC.
BIT night-session data showed Tesla was the standout, after it demonstrated at its launch event a next-generation Roadster equipped with SpaceX cold-gas thrusters achieving a "brief lift-off and mid-air flip"; Musk's declaration that "flying cars are real" directly ignited buying, driving Tesla up 3.97% in the night session and expanding its premarket gain to 4.7%, while SpaceX also rose 2.50% in sympathy.
By contrast, chips and memory stayed under pressure in the night session: the 3x long semiconductor ETF (SOXL) fell 1.74%, DRAM fell 1.24%, SK Hynix fell 2.57% in the night session, TSMC fell 0.50%, Micron fell 1.12%, SanDisk fell 1.08%, AMD fell 1.32%, Marvell Technology fell 0.34%, and Nebius fell 0.74%; Lumentum (+1.14%) and Nvidia (+0.38%) managed modest gains.
AI infrastructure bond-market panic spreads; Q4 still favored by some institutions
U.S. stocks turned positive from a deep selloff last night, with the Dow up 1.08%, the S&P up 0.33%, and the Nasdaq up 0.08%. The market ignored both September PPI and CPI coming in hot and instead pushed the 10-year Treasury yield down nearly 10 basis points to around 5.08%; the core reason was a dense wave of dovish signals from Fed officials (Daly, Bowman and others) that there is no rush to act in October, combined with expectations that the U.S. Treasury will cut 20- and 30-year long-bond issuance in today's survey to lower rates. More critically, debt-default fears in the AI computing industry triggered massive safe-haven buying; TD Securities and Deutsche Bank strategists noted that market concerns about AI causing slower growth have completely overwhelmed the inflation trade.
In this institutional repositioning storm, Goldman Sachs' trading desk monitored that tech-stock sell orders accounted for as much as 70%, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index recorded a rare "seven-day losing streak" (more than $2 trillion in market value wiped out in 7 days), with AI infrastructure undergoing a brutal "Darwinian moment." Due to high rates and delays in local power approvals, bonds for data center projects including those of Microsoft, Meta, Oracle and Blackstone all fell below par, and five-year CDS (credit default swaps) for Oracle and SoftBank spiked to historic extremes; Gartner even warned that as many as 80% of new cloud service providers will go bankrupt by 2030, leaving hardware infrastructure stocks such as Vicor (-12%), Quantum (-9%), Dell (-6.9%) and Vertiv (-6.1%) badly mauled.
Although Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang urgently spoke out to defend CoreWeave, the compute rental company carrying nearly $50 billion in debt and with CDS-implied default probability above 60%, saying its financing costs are falling and it does not need Nvidia to backstop it, dragging the stock from an early 9.5% plunge to a 5.94% close (even though its three founders have cashed out $3.3 billion since the IPO), Huang's support seemed to last only one night, with the stock down more than 4.3% premarket.
Although Micron staged a deep-V reversal overnight and Google closed higher on a breakthrough that cut quantum chip error rates by 40x, TSMC fell as good news was priced in after a slight adjustment to gross margin guidance, and Nvidia also closed down 1.84% amid sector deleveraging. Smart money fleeing AI hardware rushed into software, pharma and consumer blue chips with higher certainty: Intuit (+6.36%) and ServiceNow (+6.14%) led software stocks, Eli Lilly (+3.55%) and Hims & Hers (+6%) pushed the healthcare ETF (XLV) to a record high, and Coca-Cola, which won KFC orders across the U.S., hit a record high and, together with Nike (+5.21%), propped up the Dow.
Still, The Kobeissi Letter and Citadel Securities strategist Scott Rubner remain bullish on the fourth quarter, noting that although 84% of S&P 500 stocks are currently more than 10% off their highs (a "stealth bear market"), with retail net buying surging to $9.1 billion in a single week and nearly half of S&P constituents reopening record buyback windows by late October, quality tech giants such as Nvidia, whose forward P/E has compressed to 24x, could see valuation repair at any time.
Amid improved macro liquidity expectations and Bitcoin's defense of $80,000, the U.S. "crypto-concept stocks" sector, which had plunged the previous day on AI infrastructure bond-market panic, staged a retaliatory rebound last night. According to BIT U.S. Stocks data, Circle rose 9.33%, Coinbase rose 6.32%, Strategy rose 5.62%, and Robinhood rose 2.88%.Mining stocks rebounded more sharply, with TeraWulf up 9.36%, American Bitcoin up 6.41%, Riot and Bitdeer up 2.65% and 2.63% respectively, Hut 8, CleanSpark, MARA and Cipher up in the 1% to 2% range, IREN down 0.56%, and Canaan down 2.25%.
Japanese and South Korean chip stocks staged a strong recovery, with the South Korean stock market ending a seven-day losing streak.
After enduring severe selling earlier, Japanese and South Korean stock markets finally saw a strong oversold rebound yesterday, with intensive statements from the Bank of Japan and South Korea's Ministry of Economy and Finance serving as stabilizers for market sentiment.
The Nikkei 225 closed up 1.39% today, ending a six-session losing streak (still down 5.37% for the week). Although Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda (read by Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida on his behalf) struck a hawkish tone again today, emphasizing the risk that the price trend could rise above 2% and that policy rates will continue to be raised, short covering in AI concept stocks still dominated the session after the previous trading day's nearly 5% plunge; Daisuke Hashizume, senior strategist at Daiwa Securities, noted that this round of gains was mainly technical covering after the sharp drop, and investors will remain cautious ahead of the U.S. midterm elections and earnings season.
South Korea's KOSPI, after plunging 7.5% on Thursday to a low since April, rebounded sharply by 2.05% today (at one point surging more than 4% intraday and triggering the KOSDAQ program trading circuit breaker), ending a rare "seven-day losing streak," though the weekly decline of 14.5% still marked the worst performance since the 2008 financial crisis. To curb the spread of panic, South Korea's Ministry of Economy and Finance issued an emergency statement today, pledging to crack down hard on market-disrupting behavior and emphasizing that economic fundamentals remain solid.
On the board, memory giants SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics, which plunged 11% and 9.5% on Thursday, both rebounded, with Samsung Electronics up 2.62%, becoming the biggest contributor to the index. In response to this epic shock, Goldman Sachs Asia-Pacific chief strategist Tim Moe and JPMorgan analyst Jay Kwon rarely synchronized in declaring that "a golden pit has appeared":
Goldman Sachs pointed out that the previous plunge stemmed from a "liquidity vacuum" triggered by the exit of buyback bids from Samsung (which completed its buyback on October 6) and SK Hynix (foreign investors net sold $13.4 billion over eight days), and that the KOSPI's forward price-to-earnings ratio is currently only 5.1x, placing it in an extremely undervalued range, and firmly maintained its 12,000-point target;
JPMorgan likewise viewed the third quarter as an "expectations reset quarter," emphasizing that demand for HBM and enterprise SSDs remains strong, and that it will core-overweight Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix and Kioxia over the next six months.
Hong Kong stocks also staged a recovery, but pulled back after opening higher, with the Hang Seng Index closing up about 0.52% and the Hang Seng Tech Index up about 1.16%. Internet and hardware equipment stocks led gains, with Lenovo Group surging more than 8%, and NIO, Kuaishou, Alibaba and Baidu all closing higher; boosted by risk-aversion sentiment and gold prices hitting record highs, Lingbao Gold surged more than 8% to lead gold stocks; mainland property and building materials stocks rallied, with Longfor Group up more than 6%, and KE Holdings and Huaxin Cement up more than 5%, while optical communications leader Zhongji Innolight also rose more than 2%; only biopharmaceuticals and traditional energy came under pressure, with Recbio plunging about 18% and WuXi AppTec down about 2%.
A-shares diverged, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing up about 0.24%, the Shenzhen Component Index slightly lower, and the ChiNext Index down about 0.39%. The low-altitude economy and defense sectors saw a wave of limit-up moves, with more than ten stocks including Huali Chuangtong, Wanfeng Auto, CITIC Offshore Helicopter and Great Wall Military Industry locked at the daily limit. Affected by the overseas de-rating of AI hardware and industry policy disruptions, PCB concept stocks Baoding Technology and Tianjin Printronics hit the limit down, while innovative drug leader WuXi AppTec's A-shares touched the limit down in late trading. In addition, China's Ministry of Commerce and Ministry of Science and Technology today solicited public comments on the revision of the Catalogue of Technologies Prohibited or Restricted from Export in China, covering 40 technologies including AI large models, computing clusters, cell therapy and photovoltaic silicon wafers (officials stressed that this is routine work and not targeted at any specific country).