Huatai Securities: It is difficult for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates continuously in October, and it will raise interest rates again in December under the base case

PANews reported on October 3 that according to Jinshi, Huatai Securities pointed out that the non-agricultural report in September was less than expected, and the urgency of the Federal Reserve's short-term continuous interest rate hikes has decreased. Due to the large fluctuations in non-farm payroll data in a single month, based on the three-month average, the number of new non-farm payrolls was 51,000, which is near the equilibrium employment level. The superimposed unemployment rate is still at a low level, indicating that the job market is still stable but hardly tense. Non-farm payrolls weakened in September, coupled with a decline in wage growth. Real income slowed in September, and household consumption may not be able to continue its strong performance in August. Looking forward, the forward-looking indicator NFIB's hiring intentions shows that non-farm payrolls may still be weak in October, but may rebound thereafter. Therefore, Huatai Securities believes that it will be difficult for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates continuously in October. Under the base case, it will raise interest rates again in December.