Analysis: U.S. bond volatility rose to the highest since March, but BTC and U.S. stocks were “indifferent”

PANews reported on September 25 that according to CoinDesk, the volatility of the U.S. Treasury market has increased significantly recently, while the Bitcoin and U.S. stock markets have remained calm. The MOVE index, which measures expected volatility in U.S. Treasuries, rose from about 80 on Tuesday to 104 on Thursday, the highest level since March, when the index reached 199.

In comparison, the Volmex 30-day Bitcoin Implied Volatility Index BVIV is currently around 37, close to the year’s low of 35; the Cboe VIX, which measures the expected volatility of the S&P 500, is close to the year’s low of 14. At the same time, the U.S. 10-year Treasury bond yield hit 5.2% on Thursday before falling back to 5.163%. Data shows that the correlation coefficient between VIX and MOVE has dropped to -0.06 in the past 20 trading days, turning negative for the first time since April 2024; the correlation coefficient between BVIV and MOVE is -0.37, which is at a low level in recent years. U.S. debt is an important foundation for the global financial and credit system. Increased volatility usually means tighter financial conditions. However, currently BTC and U.S. stocks have not yet reflected the same degree of volatility risk as the bond market.