Analysis: The prospect of US-Iran negotiations boosts market expectations, oil prices fall but supply risks remain

PANews reported on September 25 that oil prices fell on Friday. While the market was assessing the possibility of ceasefire negotiations between the United States and Iran, it was also worried that the Houthi armed forces’ escalating attacks on Saudi Arabia might disrupt the supply of this major oil producer in the Middle East. The move follows a volatile week for markets. U.S.-Iran negotiators meeting in New York this week have explored a phased path to ending the conflict that would include Tehran reopening the Strait of Hormuz and Washington lifting its economic blockade on Iran, sources close to the discussions said.

Iranian President Perzehizyan said on Thursday that when the war would end still depends on the United States' decision. However, the ship traffic situation reported by Reuters still shows that the situation at the physical supply level remains fragile. Just 10 commodity ships passed through the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday, up from seven the day before but still significantly below the daily average of about 17 over the past 10 days. Positive news on diplomatic progress could help oil prices pare some of the geopolitical premium, but shipping data still suggests any real sense of normalization is still some way off.