727 FinanceAI agents have caused anxiety about disintermediation, online intermediary platforms have been "bloodbathed", and network security and shale oil have become safe havens. U.S. bond yields soared to 5.135%, oil prices returned to $103, the probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates in October was over 70%, and the market focused on the China-U.S. meeting.
Every Monday to Friday morning, we focus on macroeconomics, US stocks, AI, precious metals and crude oil, use data to review the market, and use trends to seize opportunities. Produced by PANews.
The "perfect storm" of U.S. debt is sweeping the world, and oil prices are bucking the trend and soaring
At the close of U.S. stocks last night, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.68%, the Nasdaq Composite fell 1.13%, and the S&P 500 fell 0.75%. Interest rate-sensitive growth stocks and small-cap stocks led the decline.
The preliminary S&P Global Composite PMI in the United States surged to 58.4 in September, far exceeding expectations of 55.3, the highest since July 2021. The service industry and manufacturing industry are simultaneously strong, and employment growth is the fastest in four years. S&P Global Chief Business Economist Chris Williamson pointed out that apart from the rebound after the epidemic, this is the largest improvement since the beginning of 2015.
The U.S. Treasury Department announced on Thursday that it would repurchase up to $6 billion of 20- to 30-year ultra-long-term bonds. This was the second round of additional operations. Treasury Secretary Bessent called it an action after the market price deviated from equilibrium. However, the market reaction was lukewarm, and long-term yields continued to rise. The scale of repurchases is difficult to change the selling logic dominated by supply and growth expectations. Bob Michele, chief investment officer of JPMorgan Asset Management, said the market had expected greater buybacks.
The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield surged by about 3% in a single day, hitting 5.135% at one point, a new high since 2007; the 30-year U.S. bond yield hit 5.419%, a new high since 2004, and the 30-year mortgage interest rate Directly breaking 7%; the U.S. Treasury Department’s $70 billion 5-year Treasury bond auction exploded, with the bid rate reaching 5.033%. Primary dealers were forced to swallow a record allocation ratio, and the 5-year yield exceeded 5% for the first time since 2007.
The settlement price of Brent crude oil rose nearly 4% and returned to US$103/barrel, while WTI rebounded simultaneously, ending its previous losing streak. Iranian President Pezhiziyan stated at the UN General Assembly that he is willing to negotiate but will not accept threats from powerful powers. The deadlock in the Strait of Hormuz remains unresolved. Market optimism about the US-Iran peace talks has cooled. The linkage between oil prices and US bond yields has intensified concerns about inflation. The White House denied that reports related to the diesel export ban were "fake news". The news had previously caused U.S. ultra-low sulfur diesel futures to fall by more than 7%.
The dollar stands above 101, gold and silver are under pressure, and the probability of raising interest rates in October is approaching 70%
CME's "Fed Watch" shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates by 25 basis points in October has exceeded 70% (about 70.9%), and interest rate swaps have been fully factored into expectations of three interest rate hikes in the next year. Federal Reserve Governor Michael Barr made it clear that inflation is above the 2% target and has not declined significantly, and "further policy adjustments may be needed under the baseline scenario." Rich Privorotsky of Goldman Sachs interprets this as a repricing of strong growth assumptions: a 6% fiscal deficit coupled with large-scale spending means a higher real cost of capital, rather than simply runaway inflation.
The U.S. dollar index jumped above 101, hitting its highest level since July. The rise in real interest rates directly suppressed non-interest-bearing assets. Spot gold fell below US$4,300, gold stocks generally fell, silver fell 3.89% to US$64.28, and Bitcoin also fell back to around US$84,000. However, the medium-term bullish logic of gold has not disappeared. Ryan McKay of TD Securities believes that the market has already priced in multiple interest rate hikes. If the actual degree of tightening is lower than the current pricing, gold may regain upward momentum; the agency also pointed out that global gold ETF and central bank demand remains strong. BMO also believes that the highly stable negative relationship between gold and real interest rates in the past is weakening, and continues to view a re-breakthrough of $5,000 in 2027 as a possible scenario.
On the afternoon of September 23, local time, President Xi Jinping arrived in Washington for a state visit to the United States at the invitation of Trump. He was warmly welcomed by his wife at Andrews Air Force Base. Trump said this was a world-famous visit and he looked forward to an in-depth exchange of views. China and the United States have previously agreed to extend the existing trade truce for two months. Therefore, the market is highly concerned about whether new enforceable content can emerge on tariffs, AI, rare earths, export controls and procurement arrangements. The market regards this as a potential variable in short-term risk appetite and trade expectations. In addition, South Korean President Lee Jae-myung promised in New York to double semiconductor production capacity within five years and called on the United States to increase investment in South Korea, aiming to strengthen the resilience of the AI supply chain.
AI agent anxiety cuts the market, network security and shale oil become safe havens
Overall technology and growth stocks were under pressure, but divisions within the sector were sharp. Most AI application software stocks strengthened, cybersecurity concepts broke out across the board, and shale oil stocks benefited from the rebound in oil prices and rose across the board, becoming one of the few bright spots in the S&P 500. Most optical communications and memory chip stocks fell, gold stocks generally fell, and Chinese concept stocks were generally under pressure.
Meta's Muse intelligent agent continues to ferment and is deeply integrated with smart glasses. Zuckerberg proposed at the Connect conference that the next stage of AI breakthrough lies in the collaboration between agents. Meta hopes that in the future, Muse will continue to complete tasks in the background and extract commissions from transactions facilitated by agents, making the AI business model move from "subscription fees" to "transaction entrances" for the first time. This directly triggered the "disintermediation anxiety". Amazon has banned Muse from shopping on its platform for users. Travel aggregation platforms are also facing pressure. The market is worried that consumers will complete searches, price comparisons and reservations directly through AI agents instead of entering traditional OTA websites. Goldman Sachs warned that AI agents will have a broad impact on industries dominated by intermediary fees, and pointed out that the next stage of AI is not only "who owns the model", but who controls the consumer's decision-making power before the last click.
The regulatory path is becoming the third discount factor in AI valuation. OpenAI CEO Sam Altman and Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei called for strengthening international coordination at the United Nations Security Council and proposed controlling the pace of cutting-edge AI development. Anthropic has made it clear that it will slow down its research and development progress due to security considerations. If security constraints extend the training cycle, the large-scale arms race may shift from a pure competition of computing power to a competition of security, deployment efficiency and commercialization speed. The above-mentioned stance is in tension with Trump's stance of "promoting progress rather than restrictions." Republican leader John Thune said that Trump prefers corporate self-discipline rather than direct government intervention.
Moody's report shows that the five major technology giants Amazon, Microsoft, Google, Meta and Oracle have off-balance sheet obligations arising from AI investments of nearly US$3 trillion, a surge from approximately US$350 billion in 2023. In a high interest rate environment, the greater the AI capital expenditure, the more intense the tug-of-war between future revenue growth and current financing costs will be. Nvidia's credit default swap activity has increased, with credit protection notional principal amounting to approximately US$6.9 billion in the past six months. The company has been included in the CDX investment grade index, and the cost of hedging its debt risk has doubled this year. Cracks also appeared on the financing side. SoftBank's SB Energy postponed its IPO plan because investors questioned its valuation of more than US$50 billion and lacked a mature data center operation record. The capital market began to demand a clearer return cycle for AI infrastructure stories.
Specific project actions and stock price fluctuations:
Meta bucked the trend and closed up more than 1%. Muse has topped the App Store only two weeks after its launch, with over 2.5 million downloads and strong daily activity and command volume. Wall Street collectively sang bullish, with KeyBanc’s target price raised to US$900. Cantor Fitzgerald raised its target price sharply to US$860 and reiterated its overweight position, saying that AI robots may become the “third S-shaped growth curve”; JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Jefferies, etc. maintained their buys. Related AI application software stocks generally rose, with Palantir rising nearly 4% (accepting FAA air traffic control deployment expectations) and ServiceNow rising nearly 3%.
Online intermediary platforms have been "bloodbathed": The market is worried that AI agents will directly complete searches, comparisons and purchases for consumers, weakening the value of traditional search advertising and e-commerce portals; Amazon has taken the initiative to ban Muse purchasing agents. Travel agencies have become the most direct victims of "disintermediation", with Google falling 2.8%, Amazon falling 2.24%, Expedia falling 7.72%, Airbnb falling 7.56%, Booking falling 5.1%, Shopify and AppLovin both falling more than 4%.
Most optical communications stocks fell, with Applied Optoelectronics falling more than 5%, Coherent and Corning falling more than 3%, and Broadcom falling nearly 3%.
Storage concepts generally fell, with Micron Technology falling more than 2%. However, Citi raised its target price to US$1,300, optimistic about DRAM and AI demand. SanDisk fell nearly 4%, SK Hynix fell more than 3%, and Western Digital bucked the trend and rose nearly 2%.
The concept of network security is strong, Palo Alto Networks rose 5%, CrowdStrike rose nearly 5% to a new high, and Okta rose more than 4%.
Shale oil stocks rose across the board: Apache rose more than 3%, ConocoPhillips and Devon rose more than 2%, Occidental and EOG nearly 1%, Exxon and Chevron both rose more than 1%.
SpaceX fell more than 4%: Company President and COO Gwynne Shotwell plans to sell approximately 340,000 shares and cash out more than $52 million through the 10b5-1 plan, while important Starship tests are approaching
TSMC fell more than 1%: market news said that starting from January 2027, wafer foundry quotations will increase by about 3% to 6%, with advanced processes such as 2nm and 3nm experiencing higher increases. It is a profit margin support for TSMC itself, but it means that the cost of chips will further rise in the future for Nvidia, AMD and downstream AI hardware.
McDonald's fell nearly 5%: it announced a US$8.5 billion plan to support franchisees, of which approximately US$5 billion will be invested before 2030 for menu, technology, restaurant design and operation upgrades; however, the CEO bluntly stated that sluggish customer flow and high inflation are the "current operating environment", and it fell by approximately 20% during the year.
Mag 7: Google fell nearly 4% (the market attributed it to doubtful returns on AI capital expenditures, and Muse bypassing concerns about the "disintermediation" of the search ecosystem. Google Cloud announced the expansion of new regions and partners, and Beam equipment will be shipped to six countries); Amazon fell more than 2% (Meta's Muse was banned from shopping on its platform for violating terms of service); Nvidia fell Over 1% (CDS trading is active, hedging demand has soared, and credit protection costs have doubled this year); Apple fell nearly 1%; Meta rose over 1%, and Microsoft rose 0.52% (an additional US$2 billion in AI and cloud investment in the Gulf Middle East, covering submarine cable infrastructure); Tesla rose 0.32% (the most expensive sports car Roadster will be released soon on October 1).
Next things to pay attention to:
September 24 (Thursday)
The Korean stock market will be closed from the 24th to the 25th, and the Japanese stock market will open after a three-day break: If there is major news in the Korean storage sector, the price reaction may be more reflected in other markets, and there is a risk of compensating for gains and losses after the market resumes.
The Treasury Department plans to repurchase 20- to 30-year U.S. bonds with a maximum scale of US$6 billion: the 5-year auction is already weak. If long-term demand remains weak and the 10-year yield breaks through the upper edge of the range, risk asset fluctuations will amplify.
Formal meeting between China and the United States: Focus on whether there are enforceable results on trade truce, tariffs, rare earths, AI, export controls and procurement arrangements, which will directly affect Chinese concept stocks, semiconductors and global trade risk premiums.
Domestic refined oil price adjustment window: Pay attention to the transmission of international energy price increases to domestic transportation, logistics and manufacturing costs.
September 25 (Friday)
Costco Financial Report: In the context of McDonald's publicly warning about customer traffic and inflationary pressures, Costco will become an important window into the true purchasing power of middle- and high-income consumers in the United States.
A-share markets are closed for the Mid-Autumn Festival: Shrinking transactions before the holiday and accumulation of overseas news may increase the risk of shortfalls when the market resumes.