CryptoQuant: BTC supply-demand dynamics are shifting, but a strong recovery still faces challenges.

PANews October 19 news: The latest analysis by CryptoQuant points out that although Bitcoin has support, its recovery process is uneven. First, regarding exchange reserves, they rose from about 2.67 million BTC in early October to about 2.68 million BTC, still far below the January level. Low reserves do not mean a sustained contraction in supply; transfers may reflect custody changes, and an increase itself does not prove selling. Second, the recovery in spot demand has been set back, with 30-day spot demand once approaching zero and then turning negative again. Perpetual contract demand is positive, supporting overall demand. Finally, whale behavior is diverging: addresses holding 100–1,000 BTC are still net accumulating over the past 60 days, but below the peak at the end of September; the net decrease among the 1,000–10,000 BTC group is approaching zero; and the group with more than 10,000 BTC is negative. Accumulation is not unfolding across the board.

PANews October 19 news: The latest analysis by CryptoQuant points out that although Bitcoin has support, the recovery process is uneven. First, regarding exchange reserves, they rose from about 2.67 million BTC in early October to about 2.68 million BTC, still far below the January level. Low reserves do not mean a sustained contraction in supply; transfers may reflect custody changes, and an increase itself does not prove selling. Second, the recovery in spot demand has been set back, with 30-day spot demand once approaching zero and then turning negative again. Perpetual contract demand is positive, supporting overall demand. Finally, whale behavior is diverging: addresses holding 100–1,000 BTC have still been net accumulating over the past 60 days, but below the peak at the end of September; the net decrease among the 1,000–10,000 BTC group is approaching zero; and the group with more than 10,000 BTC is negative. Accumulation is not unfolding across the board.

CryptoQuant believes that conditions supporting Bitcoin's bottoming out still exist. To achieve a solid recovery, sustained spot demand support is needed, buyers need to be able to absorb the BTC flowing back to exchanges, and accumulation behavior should spread to more holder groups. Market expectations regarding the U.S. midterm elections and monetary policy must translate into actual buying behavior. The key is whether price increases can attract an expanding and enduring group of buyers.